The Value of Oil

I was listening to an article (wow the future is so rad) the other day about how there is an enormous oil reserve in Ecuador that is underneath a national rain forest preserve.We have seen this movie and heard this plot many times, but what is interesting about reality is that the Ecuadorian government is doing something different.

The Ecuadorian government is requesting money from the world in exchange for not opening up the reserve for drilling; they are basically holding their rain forest hostage:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/02/05/171172196/episode-433-holding-a-rainforest-hostage

but I'm not sure who from.

I started thinking about this. Nobody is holding a gun to the heads of the Ecuadorian government and forcing them to tap this oil reserve, oil companies that want to come in and extract the oil would need to pay the government for the ability to do so. Worst case scenario, the oil will stay in the ground until their sovereignty becomes threatened.

Ecuador could decide to drill. Obviously that money would be used to benefit the Ecuadorian people, but it has been shown in resource rich countries that very little of that money actually benefits the population at large. Instead the money is lost to corrupt leadership and governments, and revenues benefit the oil companies.

This trade off is very unique in my view. On one hand you have a natural resource that is valuable, useful and pretty much essential to the world as we know it. Oil is used to transport things, create things, and gives the world freedom. The other hand is that oil fuels the chaos of our world, enables us to be lazy and ends up polluting the world at each stage in it's life from extraction to consumption to decomposition.

I remember listening to another article about how the Native Americans were negotiated with during the civil war, when pioneers ventured west. One of the strategies was offering credit to the Indians for food, guns, and other things that white people had in abundance. When the Native Americans later could not pay their debts, the white settlers took their land instead.

The Ecuador situation sounds remarkably like the Native American one. They are faced with the situation of trading money which can be used to buy the things they need (better medicine, better infrastructure, better education) in exchange for something that has undefined value and has significant external benefits to the world.

The oil is not going to disappear anytime soon. It can stay in the ground as long as it needs to, and if Ecuador chooses they can choose to extract it. As the article points out, leaving the oil in the ground and leaving the preserve intact has a compounding effect on global climate change; the oil is never burned or consumed, and the rainforest itself absorbs CO2 gasses and produces oxygen for the world.

If this boils down to money, I say leave the oil in the ground. It has more value under the ground than in the world's gas tanks.

2012: Not a bad year.

2011 sucked so much.

Anyone that knows me probably knows why. 2011 was a year of self destruction, wallowing, discovery, and martyrdom. I tried new things, but sort of flailing in the dark and trying to find something that stuck. This was true with dating, location, working, and a lot of life. Not a bad thing, but there was no strategy or no tact to which I was doing a lot of things.

This year I decided to start rebuilding myself. My road trip, starting a new career, starting a new relationship, and rebuilding my body were all things that I approached with a plan. I’m proud of everything this year that I accomplished everything I set out to do. This worries me a little, in that I accomplished so much in one year I feel obligated to be even more ambitious about what I expect from myself in the future. I’m also the most introspective than I have ever been in my life, and I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

Getting in shape was definitely the centerpiece of the whole year. In January, I weighed 260lbs and wasn’t especially happy with myself, but then I’ve been overweight for most of my life. I finally decided to do something about it, because despite what people say appearance is very very important. I learned this year, that how you present yourself has the potential to change how you approach each day and how people perceive you. Human are attracted to attractiveness. I weighed in finally at about 205 at the end of 2012, so I dropped about 55lbs.

Losing weight is really easy once you commit to it. You change your diet, increase your physical activity levels and do less of the bad habits that contribute to being overweight. I stopped playing a significant amount of video games, and stopped drinking beer.

I stopped eating ramen, Mac & cheese, and pretty much anything that came out of a box or a freezer this year where these had been staples of my diet for as long as I can remember. Specifically I started losing the most weight when I started thinking of my body as a closed system, and seeing food in a different light. Food has two properties, weight and nutrition; all food weighs something and when you eat it that weight augments your own. Not all food has nutrition however.

I ate less of the food that had less nutrition, while consuming high nutrition foods in sensible quantities. My body follows the law of the conservation of mass and energy. Mass goes into my body, and mass goes out. If I want to eat the bad stuff, just eat a little of it.

The year started out with lots of weights and burpees, and ended the year with not as much weights and a lot more running and rowing. All in all I found a good routine that challenges me and also feels good.

The Post.

/checks forum
/forum = "Complete Bullshit"
/set fucks="0"
/srspost

I feel like Furioso. A different raider from a different time. I wanted things to stay the same, while the guild changed and evolved. My Big Crits was a place where I had authority and control and things could be done my way. T10 belonged to me, my 10man belonged to me, Da Crew belonged to me for a short while. I could do or say whatever the fuck I wanted and I had control over where the boat went. 

I came back to raiding and I was not in control anymore. I liked it at first. I could just be anonymous average raider #1937-4. You know how they say it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks? It's even harder to make him unlearn the tricks he already knows. I decided to fight the new way instead of adapt to it.

OH MY GOD THERE ARE THINGS THAT WE CAN DO BETTER AND I'M THE ONLY ONE THAT SEES THEM WHY CAN'T ANYONE ELSE. 

Important boss ability incoming, and nobody is calling it. I might as well say something. Get hand slapped. Suggest a battle res on a healer/tank 10 seconds after they die. Get called out. Try to help by suggesting a strat in raid chat. Feel ignored. Send a tell to raid leader about how to improve something. You are being ignored. After a while I just felt like I was getting in the way and not ameliorating the situation. The part of my brain that raid leads and things critically about encounters never got turned off and I don't know how to turn it off. It got so bad I literally muted myself for several weeks because I couldn't stop.

Part of the reason I play this game is because it makes me feel important/useful/smart/endowed whatever. After the first few weeks of heroic progression, I felt worthless. I couldn't stay alive on some encounters. I couldn't be trusted with important assignments. Every night felt like I was that guy holding everyone back during progression. 

Plus there is history with the guild. I was an officer, then I wasn't, then I was kinda, now I'm not. I spent one night after Rash stepped down thinking, "Do I want to stick my dick in this blender and offer to raid lead again? I obviously don't have the self discipline to regulate it, why not?" When I said, I didn't want to be an officer again, that was more me telling myself rather than stating an obvious fact.

I agree with Sarc. Big Crits does not know how to communicate in raids. People don't know how to filter the bullshit, and add constructive input on a boss. I don't know whether I contributed to or mitigated that situation. I'm guessing I just added to the pile. It seems like trivial stuff boils to the surface, and important things fall through the cracks (calling for cooldowns, stormlashes, battle reses, boss gotchas, Hey my thing that I need is on cooldown halp pls)

The era of Stoney where we had very top down style leadership is what I know, and Sarc/Jurr/Sarc is a more nuanced self regulating style of leadership where I feel like I piss more people off than have friends.

I'm sorry to everyone for how I left but the bandaid needed to come off, and especially the officers and Rash had to put up with my bullshit in raids and on the forums. I probably roused more rabble than anyone and am not proud of it. You guys are all still my friends.

Being Sat.

This week Big Crits killed the server first Will of the Emperor. I was on the bench.

I'm glad that we killed it. I'm mad that I was sitting out for the kill, and I should have been in. I was in for most of the progression for this boss, healing as my offspec. We picked up some recruit healers this week, and I was set to go to kill the boss this week as my main spec.

First night of progression this week, I was having computer issues, so I sat while I put the finishing touches on my new computer. My hard drives got partitioned really weird when I set them up, so while merging them together the boot record got corrupted, so I had to re-install Windows again. I was irked that I couldnt get in on the boss attempts and listening to mumble of people making mistakes over and over and everyone getting frustrated. I wanted to be there.

Last night was the night that Big Crits killed it, and I wasn't raiding. I was sitting on the bench. I was ready to raid at the beginning of the night, when I had to do one last restart to get Mumble working, which took 10 minutes because Windows update decided to restart my computer 5 times to do more updating. All said and done, when I logged back in it was 5 after raid time, and I was on the bench. Fuck me, but oh well we have baddies and initiates that will probably be subbed at some point.

Nope.

Oh one of the warlocks lost internet, and we need a sub. Goodie, I'll just wait to be pulled in.

10 minutes pass.

I say audibly on Mumble "Hey guys, I'm on the bench and I can come in right now"

"Hey initiate rogue, we are pulling you in for this boss"

Fucking seriously? Are you LITERALLY kidding me right now?

I shouldn't have stayed silent for that long. I should have said, right away, "Bring me in. Now." There were 5 initiates in for the kill last night, and being sat for raiders. I shouldn't be thinking about it this much but I am.

Was I being sat because of my skill as a player, because of my class, or is it as simple as me not being vocal and visible enough to get pulled into the raid? Now I'm just frustrated and questioning my place in the guild again, which I thought I had proven my skills and abilities to be a raider in. What more do I have to do?

Quarter 4 Report

Too many thoughts happening all at once, need to get them down on paper.

Fitness:

I've been taking a break the last few weeks to let my body heal up before I hit it hard again. I took an arrow to the knee in August, and last month I had a piece of bone break off inside my foot which  has made working out challenging. I get activity where I can, but I miss running a lot, and I don't want to backslide and have to make up for lost time.

Not being able to work out is actually physically frustrating, because I want to meet my new years resolution, and keep losing weight into next year. My diet has changed dramatically, and I've fallen in love with carrots as a snack. This is helping immensely. I'm still eating things that I love, just not as many of them, and I hope to add beer back into my diet sparingly next year granted I'm meeting my goals. Not just any beer though, GOOD beer; small batch craft beers ideally. Maybe start brewing again at some point.

Even with the downtime, I'm still losing weight. I clocked in at 215 yesterday which is pretty fucking fabulous considering everything. I'm hoping not too much of that is muscle loss. Getting back to the gym is going to be disappointing when I can't lift as much, but c'est la vie.

Back on the needle:

Yea.

Playing WoW again, and having a fucking blast.

I came back to Big Crits about a month ago when I knew that I wanted to give raiding another shot. I rerolled a completely new character, and cutting ties with the one I have been playing for 6+ years. If raiding ends up completely garbage, it will be easier to break away with a character I have less inertia with. It's also refreshing to rediscover parts of the game that I had taken for granted with the old. No way in hell I'm going to be farming for old gear though. The vanity part of the game is dumb.

Right now there is lots of energy in the guild, and hopes are high. Tier 14 starts next week, and we are all ready to hit it as hard as we can, going for server firsts and the like. I'm trying to balance this better with the other areas of my life now. It's already taking it's toll on my time getting prepared for the first week of raiding with all the dungeon grinding we have been doing. I'm a little behind with gear compared to other people, but I'm not worried about it.

I'm playing the game on my terms. I'm not going to be dumping more time into the game than I need to in order to meet the standards of the raiding team in terms of gearing up. All the gear I have will end up being replaced in raids and with rep rewards anyways. I've ran about 20 heroic dungeons, but the gear I want just refuses to drop. I'll just make do with what I have. I'm confident in my skill to be an excellent raider, and skill trumps gear any day all day. I have better things to do with my time anyways...

Relationships?

I have a girlfriend. I'm terrified.

This probably deserves a post all by itself, but fuck it. I'm laying out all my fears for the internet to behold.

She lives in Peru. We text everyday, and Skype almost every day. We have been officially dating for about 3-4 months. I feel like she is strong in all the things I am not, and vice versa. She visited last July and we were all over each other. We miss each other a lot, and we are both hoping that she can move to the USA when she finishes school, and we can pursue...whatever this is...

I'm fairly sure that she is in love with me, and I don't reciprocate at the moment. I'm literally a chicken shit and I don't know how to deal with it. I'm this tempest in a teacup right now figuring out if this is what I want. Is this how Erin felt during our relationship?

The questions are simple though.

Do I want to be in a relationship with someone: Yes
Do I want to be in a relationship with Ale: Yes
Do I see myself in the future with someone (kids, marriage, soccer practice yadda yadda): Yes
Do I see a future with Ale: Yes

Am I in love? Simple answer, no. Not the head over heels, infatuation love that people do anything and everything to keep and hold. I've been there, it was nice. Ultimately I got burned the hardest I've ever been in my life, and THAT is what scares me. The horrible fiery crash. Right now my brain can't stop seeing the mangled bodies left after the relationship fails, and my heart is hardened from wanting to be alone. Basically I'm a fucking wreck.

I'm afraid of failure. It's something that has always been with me.

I need more time. I need to turn my brain off. I need to sit on that boxcar at the top of the hill and just let the detritus come.

Statistics and being "Normal".

Normal. It's a word that we all seem to have a love/hate relationship with. Everyone wishes they were more normal, while also wanting to be unique.

I've been meaning to post this for a while, because it's one of my more abstract thoughts. That, and it involves statistics.

I think most people recognize this:

This is the normal distribution curve. The theory goes that this is the natural distribution of probability of observations made in nature. The average, or the norm, is right in the middle and typically has the highest chance of occurring. As you move away from the normal on either side, the probability goes down sharply. 

See those little numbers on the bottom? Those represent standard deviations. The standard deviation shows how much variation or"dispersion" exists from the average value. The normal standard deviation represents ~68% of the total values in the total sample size.

So, let's apply this theory to people. Look at the above curve and say we apply it to how attractive a person is on a scale of 1-10. So the norm would be a 5, the far right side would be a 10, and the far left would be a 1. If you picked 100 people at random, on average they would rate a 5 for attractiveness and 68% of the people would rate between a 2.6 and a 7.4. So if you were a normal person, you would be a 5.

Now, let's look at this graph in two dimensions:

So, here we are grouping observations in two dimensions. Let's take our attractiveness observation (x) from earlier and add a new independent dimension, intelligence (y). Just by looking at the graph, that most people are middle of the road attractive and intelligent. Compared to entire graph, people that are super smart and super hot (-4,-4) would be in the extreme minority, while most people would fall into the standard deviation range.

From here we can extrapolate and add as many independent dimensions as we want to measure people by: ethnicity, age, favorite color, whatever...

You end up with a hypergraph measuring all these things at the same time and defining the truly normal person: middle of the road in every imaginable aspect. This person is normally attractive, intelligent, average interests, average everything. This "normal" person isn't really remarkable in any way, and that's my point. They don't stand out, they aren't unique even in the slightest way. Why do we compare ourselves, and in some cases aspire to be this normal person? What does this measurement provide?

As far as I can understand, the normal yardstick is great so that we can measure ourselves against something. We imagine normal people but this person isn't average, they are usually better than average. If normal is 5, we envision someone maybe 7 or 8 to be the normal. Not perfect, but not a dirt-bag either. This may be a way to encourage ourselves to be better than average, to aspire not to perfection, but to be the 7 or 8 that feels like a great compromise between average and perfect.

231.

The year is half over. As Chris Farley would say, "HOLY SHNYKIES", henceforth it's time to check in.

I started this crazy notion at the beginning of the year to invest in myself. One of the things I wanted to do was get in a better physical condition, something that would be completely selfish. It's been a great transformation. I have accomplished some of the goals I set for myself, and I feel really proud of the work I have done.

The good:

-Lost about 30lbs so far. Well on track to lose all 50 by years end, so I'm going to work hard to meet and beat that goal.

-Inches and shape. My body looks much better than it ever has. I'm going to need to start buying new clothes soon that fit me better. Wh-oot.

-Nutrition. It was rough at first to get on a good nutrition schedule but I've found one that works for me, and it's not some fucking stupid all protein, or powersauce fad crap. I'm eating better because I want to for the long run. I still want to be able to eat delicious food, but just not a lot of it. This is the problem with American diets: portion control. Right now I am eating smaller meals, more frequently, and teaching my body to survive on smaller meals. This might sound sort of gross, but I noticed my success was working when I was taking smaller poops. Deal with it.

My job: This isn't an investment in me per se, but I think I have landed a whale of a job. Me gusta.

Spanish: So, I'm learning Spanish now as well and it's keeping me away from video games. I have a lovely lady helping me learn too, and she is really excited that I am getting good at it.

The not so good:

Self Esteem: I think this one will be one of those things that I may not have the strength to change. I feel great about myself, really I do. I am generally a badass. The thing I lack is that alpha attitude, and I guess that is just something that you are born with; I don't feel the need to impose my will over anyone else, but instead I like to absorb the worlds contradictions and idiosyncrasies. I'm definitely more confident tho. Props.

Women: This is a blog post in itself, but tldr, women have fucked up. You are all walking contradictions, but it's not your fault. You ladies are this big bag of emotions, with no rhyme or reason why you do things, and then you whine and complain later when you didn't get what you want. It's not your fault, you were just drawn that way. I need to figure out how to deal with you. It goes both ways I suppose.

Beer: HOLY FUCKING TEABAGGING CHRIST BEER, I MISS YOU SO MUCH. SHOON.

Has the investment paid off? Fuck if I know. Too soon to tell if anything. I may never know. Opportunity cost is a tricky thing to measure, especially when you are trying to measure your life.